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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 30 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest flare of the period was a B8/1f at 30/0850 UTC from Region 2458 (N08W30, Cao/beta). Slight growth was observed in the intermediate and trailing spots of Region 2458. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.
A large prominence eruption was observed on the SW limb beginning at 30/0155 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed off the SW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/0324 UTC. Given its location and trajectory, the CME is unlikely to have a geoeffective component, however analysis is in progress to determine conclusively.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (30 Nov-02 Dec).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (30 Nov) with moderate to high levels on days two and three (01-02 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for the forecast period.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated an earlier than expected arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the onset of a CH HSS.
For the majority of the period total field strength was between 1 nT and 11 nT with the Bz component mostly negative near -5 nT after 29/1749 UTC. By 30/0612 UTC, total field began to increase to a maximum of 15 nT with a maximum southward Bz component around -13 nT. By the end of the period, total field had decreased to around 8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased around 30/0810 UTC to near 520 km/s. Phi angle was variable throughout the period until 30/0630 UTC when it settled into a mostly positive (away) sector.
Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be elevated through day two (01 Dec) as CH HSS conditions persist with solar wind speeds likely in the 550-650 km/s range. By day three (02 Dec), solar wind conditions are expected to decrease towards background levels as CH HSS effects diminish.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels over the period due to the onset of CIR and subsequent CH HSS activity. An isolated G1 (minor) storm period was observed during the 30/0600-0900 UTC period as the CIR began influencing the geomagnetic field.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active periods for the rest of day one (30 Nov) with unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming on day two (01 Dec) due to continued CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (02 Dec) as coronal hole influence subsides.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Nov 30 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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