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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest flare of the period was a C1 flare at 25/0827 UTC from the NW limb. Coronal dimming was noted around the flare region in SDO/AIA 193 imagery but no associated coronal mass ejection (CME) has been observed in available coronagraph imagery. Another CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/0125 UTC but appears to be associated with a far-side event.

Newly numbered Region 2460 (N13e36, Cro/beta) developed an intermediate spot and leader spot with rudimentary penumbra over the past 24 hours. Region 2458 (N08E40, Dai/beta) developed new intermediate spots with penumbra and exhibited penumbral dissipation in the trailer spot. Region 2459 (N04E66, Cai/beta) underwent umbral growth in its intermediate and trailer spot. Region 2457 (N12E05, Dai/beta) remained relatively stable with only minor dissipation observed among the intermediate spots.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1 to R2 - Minor to Moderate) Radio Blackouts for the next three days (25-27 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (25-27 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft remained at nominal levels. Wind speeds ranged between 265 km/s to near 370 km/s. Total field strength (Bt) was steady at 3-4 nT while the Bz component varied between -2 and +3 nT. The phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun) throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters may see a weak enhancement on day one (25 Nov) through day two (26 Nov) with the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By day three (27 Nov), wind parameters are expected to reflect a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period, on day one (25 Nov) from the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Day two (26 Nov) is expected to see quiet to unsettled levels as positive polarity CH HSS influence wanes. Mostly quiet levels with isolated periods of unsettled conditions are expected on day three (27 Nov).

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