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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2454 (N07E17, Dro/beta) increased in spots and gained rudimentary penumbra. Despite the growth, the region was inactive and remained in a simple bipolar configuration. Region 2455 (N15E01, Bxo/beta) underwent some dissipation over the period and remained inactive.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (17-19 Nov), primarily due to the growth in Region 2454.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 3129 pfu observed at 16/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (17-19 Nov) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of ambient conditions. Solar wind velocity was steady between 350-380 km/s. The total magnetic field strength (Bt) ranged primarily from 5 to 7 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was variable with no prolonged periods of significant southward orientation. The phi angle was positive (away from Sun) through the period.

Forecast: Solar wind and IMF parameters are expected to continue at ambient levels throughout day one (17 Nov). A change from a positive to a negative (towards the Sun) solar sector is expected by day two (18 Nov), to be followed shortly afterwards by enhancements in the IMF and increases in solar wind speeds due to arrival of an expected co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Later on day two, further enhancements in the IMF and solar wind are expected in conjunction with the arrival of the 15-16 Nov CME. Solar wind and IMF parameters are expected to become less enhanced on day three (19 Nov) as CH HSS and CME effects begin to wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Nov) due to lack of any expected transient or recurrent features. Day two (18 Nov) is expected to see an increase to active conditions in response to the arrival of a CIR and subsequent effects from the CH HSS. Analysis and multiple WSA-Enlil mode run solutions of the 15-16 Nov CME indicate a consistent probability of a glancing blow or flanking hit from the CME, however, there are mixed results regarding the density involved with the Earth-directed portion of the CME. Therefore, the current forecast calls for a likely geomagnetic response escalating to minor storming (G1-Minor), with a chance for major storm (G2-Moderate) levels, later on day two due to the expected arrival of the 15-16 Nov CME. Enhanced conditions are expected to continue into day three (19 Nov) at active levels, with a chance for early periods of minor (G1) storming. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled and quiet conditions by the end of day three as CME and CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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