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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity increased to low levels due to a single C1/Sf flare observed at 21/0214 UTC from Region 2457 (N10E55, Dsi/beta). The region showed little change as it rotated fully onto the disk. Region 2454 (N13W34, Dao/beta) exhibited overall growth in both its leader and trailer spots while Region 2456 (N06W36, Dao/beta) showed some leader growth. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (21-23 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (21-23 Nov) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period. Solar wind speeds began the period at about 380 km/s and showed a slight increase to about 415 km/s by 21/0000 UTC and maintained this speed through periods end. IMF total field strength values ranged between 4-9 nT. The Bz component was steady northward to 8 nT through 20/2247 UTC when Bz indicated some variability between +/- 4 nT for the remainder of the period. The phi angle was mostly in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (21-23 Nov) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period (21-23 Nov).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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