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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2443 (N07, L=321), produced the strongest flare of the period, a C3 flare at 10/1411 UTC, as it rotated around the west limb. A new region of flux near the SE limb produced a C2 flare at 10/1654 UTC. Region 2448 (N04W08), Cao/beta) underwent some dissipation as it decreased in area and total spots. Region 2449 (S12E10, Dso/beta) continued to undergo decay as it decreased in penumbral area. All other regions were little changed and stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in available SOHO/LASCO imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to remain low, with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts on days one through three (11-13 Nov), with Region 2449 being the most likely contributor.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 19,551 pfu observed at 10/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased from slightly elevated, but below S1 (Minor) radiation storm levels, to background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (11-13 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocity remained elevated through the period, with speeds ranging from about 550 - 750 km/s. Total magnetic field strength continued to decline from a high of 7 nT, down to about 3 to 5 nT. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away) with a few short-spanned oscillations into the negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced, but likely to gradually decline on day one (11 Nov) as the CH HSS effects subside. Later on day one and into day two (12 Nov), the arrival of the 09 Nov CME is expected. Enhanced solar wind speeds and increased total magnetic field strength (Bt) are anticipated with the arrival and passage of the CME. Influences from the CME are expected to decline by early on day three (13 Nov), before another enhancement in total magnetic field strength (Bt) is expected ahead of another positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached major storm (G2-Moderate) levels during the 10/1200-1500 UTC synoptic period, and was at unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels afterwards. This geomagnetic activity was due to the elevated wind speeds from the CH HSS and anti-parallel periods of IMF in relation to the Earths magnetic field.

Forecast: Unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions are expected to continue on day one (11 Nov) due to CH HSS effects. Late on day one, the arrival of the 09 Nov CME is anticipated, and will likely re-initiate G1 storm conditions. Isolated periods of G1 level storming are likely to continue into the first half of day two (12 Nov). Later on day two, geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to quiet and unsettled periods as CME effects wane. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (13 Nov) as the Earths geomagnetic field reacts to enhanced IMF conditions ahead of another positive polarity CH HSS.

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