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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 16 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2449 (S10, L=211) produced a few B-class flares during the period. Regions 2453 (N06W29, Bxo/beta) and 2455 (N15E15, Dro/beta) underwent minor development this period.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) off the west limb was observed in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 15/2048 UTC. Additional data is needed before analysis can be completed, but a lack of coronal eruptions on the visible disk suggests that the CME is associated with far-sided activity and directed away from the Sun-Earth line.
Late on 15 November and early on 16 November, two filament eruptions occurred in the SW quadrant. The first was an approximate 21 degree long filament, centered near S11W17, that was observed lifting off around 15/2114 UTC. The second was an approximate 19 degree long filament, centered near S26W24, that was observed lifting off around 16/0114 UTC. These eruptions were observed in both SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery as well as GONG imagery. Limited coronagraph imagery prevented complete analysis, however given their location and initial trajectory, an Earth-directed component is probable.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (16-18 Nov).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 2,087 pfu observed at 15/1455 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (16-18 Nov) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period.
Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from about 440 km/s to about 375 km/s. IMF total field strength values reached 9 nT. The Bz component was mostly northward to 8 nT through about 17/1700 UTC when it rotated to southward reaching a maximum deflection of -7 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately positive (away from the Sun) solar sector configuration.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on days one and two (16-17 Nov). Solar wind speeds are expected to become slightly enhanced (~500 km/s) midday on day three (18 Nov) due to the anticipated onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a negative coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active interval observed during the 16/0000-0300 UTC period.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on day one (16 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Nov). Quiet to active field conditions are expected on day three (18 Nov) due to the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Nov 16 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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