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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels with numerous C-class flares observed from Region 2454 (N14W61, Dai/beta-gamma); the largest was a C8/1f observed at 23/0228 UTC. No coronal mass ejection (CME) was evident from this event. The region exhibited slight area growth with intermediate and leader spot consolidation.

Region 2456 (N07W60, Bxo/beta) indicated penumbral decay throughout the region. Region 2457 (N11E29, Dsi/beta) showed some trailer spot loss. Proximity to the limb made analysis for new Region 2458 (N09E63, Cso/beta) difficult, but it appears additional spots are rotating onto the disk.

The CME that resulted from the 27 degree long filament eruption in the SE quadrant, observed early on 22 November, was analyzed and modeled. WSA-Enlil model output suggests the CME was directed just east of the Sun-Earth line with little or no Earth-impact expected. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) throughout the forecast period (23-25 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (23-25 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds meandered between 320 km/s and 350 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) values ranged between 2-4 nT while the Bz component was predominately northward to 4 nT with some southward periods to near -2 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation with a brief period of positive (away from the Sun) orientation between 23/0700-1000 UTC. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on days one and two (23-24 Nov) before becoming enhanced early on day three (25 Nov) due to the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels on days one and two (23-24 Nov) with quiet to active levels expected on day three (25 Nov) due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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