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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low due to a C1 flare from an unnumbered sunspot region from around the eastern limb. Region 2528 (N07W30, Cao/beta), the sole sunspot on the visible disk, showed signs of growth and produced multiple low level B-class flares during the reporting period. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class activity throughout the forecast period (06-08 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels, with a peak flux of 3,924 pfu at 05/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on days one and two (06-07 Apr), before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on day three (08 Apr) due to electron redistribution from CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slightly enhanced solar wind environment. Solar wind was steady at approximately 400 km/s until late in the period when it increased to near 450 km/s. The total field (Bt) ranged between 3 and 9 nT while the Bz component of the IMF reached a maximum southern extent of -6 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards the Sun) sector throughout the reporting period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced due to the skirting influence of the isolated negative polarity CH HSS on day one (06 Apr). Solar wind speed is likely to increase on day two (07 Apr) due to effects from an expected solar sector boundary change (SSBC) and CIR ahead of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS rotating into a geoeffective position. Day three (08 Apr) is likely to see continued, influence from the positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions attributed to glancing influences from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (06 Apr) due to influences of a negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (07 Apr) is likely to experience quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated period of active conditions due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR and positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (08 Apr) due to persistent CH HSS effects.

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