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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. There were multiple low level C-class flares from a region that has yet to rotate around the eastern limb. Region 2528 (N07W44, Cao/beta), the only numbered sunspot on the visible disk, showed spot development in its intermediate area but was absent of significant flare activity. The CME mentioned in the previous discussion product that was first observed in LASCO/C2 imagery at 06/1748 UTC was determined to have a trajectory north of the Sun-Earth line and is not expected to contain an Earth-directed component. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with an increasing chance for C-class flares over the forecast period (07-09 Apr). The increase in solar flare probabilities is due to a steady increase in background flux levels over the last eighteen hours and the flare history from the active region expected to rotate around the eastern limb mentioned above.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, with a peak flux of 2,100 pfu at 06/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels all three days (07-09 Apr) due to electron redistribution from expected CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of background conditions. Wind speed began the period near 420 km/s and displayed a steady decline until approximately 07/0800 UTC when it began to rise. Total field strength (Bt) ranged between 6 to 8 nT. The Bz component reached a maximum southward deviation of -4 nT. Phi angle remained in a negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is likely to become enhanced on day one (07 Apr) due to an expected solar sector boundary change (SSBC), followed by a possible CIR and subsequent connection to an isolated positive polarity CH HSS. Day two (08 Apr) is expected to continue with elevated solar wind speed due to the CH HSS. Solar wind speed is expected to decrease by day three (09 Apr) as the CH HSS begins to rotate out of geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: Days one and two (07-08 Apr) are expected to experience quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated periods of active conditions likely due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day three (09 Apr) due to continued, but waning CH HSS effects.

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