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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels this period due to a few B-class flares from new Region 2529 (N10E71, Dhi/beta). This large region continues to rotate onto the disk, so accurate magnetic classification is difficult due to limb proximity. Region 2528 (N07W56, Bxo/beta) was in decay this period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-minor) flare activity over the next three days (08-10 Apr) due to the flare potential from evolving Region 2529.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,940 pfu observed at 07/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels over the next three days (08-10 Apr) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters showed an enhanced solar wind environment caused by an SSBC at around 07/1730 UTC. The phi angle transitioned from a negative solar sector orientation to positive orientation at around 07/1770 UTC, remained in a positive sector through 08/0441 UTC and became highly variable for the remainder of the period.

Total field readings reached a peak of 13 nT at 07/1750 UTC before gradually weakening to end-of-period readings of 6 nT. The Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -12 nT at around 07/1800 UTC, remained southward through about 08/0000 UTC and was variable between +12 nT to -8 nT through periods end. During the period, solar wind speeds gradually decreased from near 410 km/s to about 345 km/s. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced for the remainder of day one (08 Apr) due to the influence of a small, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a return to near-background levels on day two (09 Apr) as CH HSS influence wanes with background levels expected on day three (10 Apr) as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels through 07/2100 UTC when minor storm (G1-minor) levels were observed through 08/0300 UTC due to an enhanced solar wind environment. Quiet to unsettled levels were recorded for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (08 Apr) through day two (09 Apr) due to the influence of a small, positive polarity CH HSS. A return to mostly quiet conditions are forecasted on day three (10 Apr) as CH HSS effects subside and a return to a nominal solar wind environment is expected.

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