[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Aug 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Aug 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A unipolar sunspot emerged and was assigned as NOAA/SWPC Region 2747 (N06E05), then decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low 07-09 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 25,869 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels, with a chance for very high levels on 07-09 Aug due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began the period around 675 km/s and declined to an average of 550 km/s as the period progressed. Total field strength was between 3 to 4 nT. The Bz component underwent only weak deviations. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive sector.

Forecast: The influences of a positive polarity CH HSS are expected to continue on 07-08 Aug, although waning conditions are expected on 08 Aug as the CH rotates further west. A return towards background conditions is anticipated by 09 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a likely period of active conditions on 07 Aug due to elevated solar wind speeds associated with the CH HSS. Waning conditions are expected to result in quiet to unsettled conditions on 08 Aug. The return towards a slow solar wind regime on 09 Aug is expected to result in mostly quiet conditions.

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