[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels with a C8 flare from along the NW limb, possibly Region 3060 (N12W87) and a C3 flare off the SE limb. Five sunspot groups were present on the visible disk. The most recent assignment was Region 3067 (N20E63, Cao/beta), but the region displayed only minor activity. All other regions were either stable or in decay.

There was an area of dimming near N35W50 observed in SDO AIA 193 imagery beginning at 27/0348 UTC. The associated CME off the NW is being analyzed but it is not likely to have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares 27-29 Jul as most visible active regions trends of stability or decay continue, and Region 3060 rotates beyond the limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to return to moderate levels 27-29 Jul, with a chance for high levels on 27 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of near background conditions. Total Field was between 5-7 nT while Bz was variable. Solar wind speed was generally close to 425 km/s. The phi angle held predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are anticipated to continue as a slow regime, with the slightly enhanced IMF still possible 27-28 Jul. Some disturbances or additional enhancements are likely on 29 Jul due to approaching CIR influences ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet 27-28 Jul, with an isolated period of unsettled conditions and slight chance of an active period on 27 Jul if the Bz component should become prolonged southward orientated. 28 Jul is expected to be mainly quiet and 29 Jul is likely to see some responses to unsettled levels due to early CIR or approaching CH HSS effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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