[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to an isolated C3.5 flare from along the SE limb and four sunspot groups were present on the visible disk. Region 3064 (N09W75) decayed to plage and all remaining regions were in decay or stable. An active region with associated facula rotated into view along the SE limb at approximately S17E79 and was the source of the aforementioned C3 flare, however, spots were not visible as of this report.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 28-30 Jul as active regions decay and/or rotate beyond the limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate, with a chance for high levels 28-30 Jul and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a near ambient-background like state, with a slightly enhanced IMF. Total IMF strength was mainly 4-10 nT, while the Bz component was variable, with a few occasions of prolonged, but mild southward deviations. Solar wind speed was between 400-450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: The solar wind field is anticipated to persist in a mildly enhanced state through 28 Jul. 29-30 Jul is likely to see increased enhancements and disturbances due to potential CIR effects followed by onset of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached unsettled levels.

Forecast: Primarily quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 28-30 Jul, with a chance of active levels on 28-29 Jul in response to the mildly enhanced solar wind environment. Active conditions are likely on 30 Jul due to CH HSS effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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