[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-level enhancements observed in X-ray flux. Region 3068 (S15W59, Dao/beta) underwent decay in its trailing spots. Region 3071 (S19E23, Hsx/alpha) was stable and otherwise unremarkable. Region 3072 (S23W47, Cro/beta) developed rudimentary penumbra in its leading spots while neighboring 3073 (S35W52, Cao/beta) grew slightly. Region 3074 (S18E61, Hsx/alpha) showed signs of possibly developing trailing spots, but remains too foreshortened to be sure at this time.

Beginning around 06/0037 UTC a filament eruption near S50W42 can be overserved in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery. The subsequent southeasterly CME can first be observed in NASA SOHO C2 imagery at 06/0136 UTC. An Earth-directed component from this event is not anticipated, but modeling of this event is currently underway.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares through

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 06-08 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected ambient-like conditions. Total field ranged 3-5 nT, and the Bz component was +/- 4 nT. Wind speeds gradually declined over the period from a start of ~400 km/s to ~345 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative with a short venture into a positive solar sector late on the 5th.

Forecast: Weak enhancements are possible on 06-07 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. On 08 Aug, another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective further enhancing the solar wind parameters.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 06-07 Aug due to possible weak HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 08 Aug due to further enhancements by another CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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