[CQ-Contest] Fw: Domestic Contest Spots/Cheating
k7qq at netzero.net
Wed Oct 19 09:02:39 EDT 2005
I think another example of this theory that can be seen visually is on the
freeway, there are periods where there are no cars then another period
where there are several.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Coleman" <aa4lr at arrl.net>
To: "Steve.Root at culligan.com" <steve.root at culligan4water.com>
Cc: <cq-contest at contesting.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 2005 00:50
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Domestic Contest Spots/Cheating
> On Oct 17, 2005, at 2:58 PM, Steve.Root at culligan.com wrote:
> > I would conclude that I must
> > have been spotted to account for this and make note of the time.
> > After the
> > contest it was easy enough to do a spot search on DX Summit to see
> > how many
> > times K0SR had been spotted. What I found was that I might get
> > spotted once
> > or twice over a whole contest. (Minnesota isn't exactly a rare
> > multiplier
> > and I'm not going to be loud from here). I see almost no correlation
> > between my rate and any "spots". I've concluded that changes in
> > propagation
> > could easily account for the changes in my rate especially on a
> > marginal
> > band like 10 meters.
> Actually, it's probably simple math.
> It's been a long time since I dealt seriously with queuing theory,
> but its certainly true that most Markovian (and many non-Markovian)
> processes will tend to "clump" like this.
> The best example is the simple Poisson process. The Poisson process
> has one parameter - that in a given time interval, the probability of
> an arrival is some constant. So, if your running stations at 60 q/hr,
> then the probability that any station would call in a particular 6
> second period is one in 10. So, you'd think that someone would call
> every 60 seconds.
> But that isn't what happens. If you model this process, you'll find
> there are periods of several minutes where no one calls, and then a
> minute where three guys call at once.
> The actual process by which callers call you is probably a lot more
> complex than the Poisson process, but it will show "clumping" much
> the same.
> Bill Coleman, AA4LR, PP-ASEL Mail: aa4lr at arrl.net
> Quote: "Not within a thousand years will man ever fly!"
> -- Wilbur Wright, 1901
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