[CQ-Contest] Fw: Domestic Contest Spots/Cheating

[k7qq]

I think another example of this theory that can be seen visually is on the
freeway,  there are periods where there are no cars then another period
where there are several.

Quack




----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Bill Coleman" <aa4lr at arrl.net>
To: "Steve.Root at culligan.com" <steve.root at culligan4water.com>
Cc: <cq-contest at contesting.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 2005 00:50
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Domestic Contest Spots/Cheating


>
> On Oct 17, 2005, at 2:58 PM, Steve.Root at culligan.com wrote:
>
> >  I would conclude that I must
> > have been spotted to account for this and make note of the time.
> > After the
> > contest it was easy enough to do a spot search on DX Summit to see
> > how many
> > times K0SR had been spotted.  What I found was that I might get
> > spotted once
> > or twice over a whole contest. (Minnesota isn't exactly a rare
> > multiplier
> > and I'm not going to be loud from here).  I see almost no correlation
> > between my rate and any "spots".  I've concluded that changes in
> > propagation
> > could easily account for the changes in my rate especially on a
> > marginal
> > band like 10 meters.
>
> Actually, it's probably simple math.
>
> It's been a long time since I dealt seriously with queuing theory,
> but its certainly true that most Markovian (and many non-Markovian)
> processes will tend to "clump" like this.
>
> The best example is the simple Poisson process. The Poisson process
> has one parameter - that in a given time interval, the probability of
> an arrival is some constant. So, if your running stations at 60 q/hr,
> then the probability that any station would call in a particular 6
> second period is one in 10. So, you'd think that someone would call
> every 60 seconds.
>
> But that isn't what happens. If you model this process, you'll find
> there are periods of several minutes where no one calls, and then a
> minute where three guys call at once.
>
> The actual process by which callers call you is probably a lot more
> complex than the Poisson process, but it will show "clumping" much
> the same.
>
>
>
> Bill Coleman, AA4LR, PP-ASEL        Mail: aa4lr at arrl.net
> Quote: "Not within a thousand years will man ever fly!"
>              -- Wilbur Wright, 1901
>
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>
>
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