[NZ4O Spaceweather] Solar Flux Index <90

[Thomas F. Giella NZ4O]

The daily solar flux index (SFI) fell below 100 on May 10, 2011 and as of 
May 20th, 2011 the SFI has now fallen below 90,  84.1 to be exact. 
Yesterday's daily sunspot number fell to 36, the second lowest value this 
month.

The sun has been very active so far during the month of May producing many 
sunspot groups. However they have been mostly small, weak and
magnetically simple.

F2 layer radiowave propagation conditions continue good on 20, 17 and 15 
meters but 12 and 10 meters are now seeing poor radiowave propagation 
conditions.

Sporadic E (Es) propagation conditions continue good on 12 and 10 meters. 6 
meters is also seeing "some" sporadic E (Es) openings as we enter the 
traditional northern hemisphere warm season pattern but overall Es activity 
has been running mostly below normal.


73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o at arrl.net

eMail Reflector Moderator & Owner

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On Tuesday May 10, 2011 the daily solar flux index (SFI) fell below 100
(97.5) for the first time since March 22, 2011. During this month the daily
sunspot count has been as high as 90 but the sunspot groups have for the
most part been small, weak and magnetically simple.

Radiowave propagation continues good on 15 and 12 meters but has become a
bit more sporadic on 10 meters. 6 meters is seeing more and more sporadic E
(Es) openings as we enter the traditional northern hemisphere warm season
pattern.

For now the sun has returned to it's quiet state as we experienced in early
2011 on back. Even as solar cycle 24 continues it's rise to a smoothed
sunspot number (SSN) maximum of ~95 in December 2013, we will continue to
see periods of abnormal sunspot production with groups small, weak and
magnetically simple.

Several years ago all government, university and private entities were
forecasting a very large solar cycle 24. As a now retired Solar & Space
Plasma Physicist as well as a Meteorologist/Climatologist I was the only one
forecasting a weak one. Unfortunately so far my forecast has been correct as
I still believe the sun is headed for a Maunder type minimum in solar output
and a continued cooling of earth's climate.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
solarcycle24 at tampabay.rr.com


NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.solarcycle24data.org
NZ4O HF/6M Radiowave Propagation Forecast: http://www.solarcycle24.org