[NZ4O Spaceweather] This Is Only A Test

Mon Apr 2 13:36:41 PDT 2012

NZ4O MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #2012-14

“A Radiowave Propagation Forecast For Hams As Well As Shortwave DXers And Listeners”

Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY 

Published on Friday 03/30/2012 at 0000 UTC

Valid 0000 UTC Saturday 03/31/2012 through 2359 UTC Friday 04/06/2012

Medium frequency (300-3000 kc) radiowave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels (>A0), proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and galactic cosmic rays. For more information on MF radiowave propagation theory check out http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm .

GLOBAL MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON 600 METERS, THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS- 

Magnetic Equator-

      Low
     0-25 degrees

      Mid
     25-60 degrees

      High
     60-90 degrees

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

      -East -> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km 
     Fair

      *North -> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km
     Fair To Poor

      +South -> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km
     Fair

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE- 

      -East -> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km
     Fair

      *South -> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km
     Poor To Fair

      +North -> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km
            Fair

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately

 3200 mi / 5200 km

      High Latitude 
     Poor

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately

 3200 mi / 5200 km

      Mid Latitude 
     Fair

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi /5200 km

      Low Latitude 
     Poor To Fair

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately

 3200 mi / 5200 km

      High Latitude 
     Poor

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately

 3200 mi / 5200 km

      Mid Latitude 
     Fair

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

      Low Latitude 
     Poor To Fair

Propagation Forecast Scale-

      Excellent
     S9+1 or better

      Good
     S7-S9

      Fair
     S4-S6

      Poor
     S1-S3

      None
     S0

GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. near real time lightning strike data:

http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html 

A global view of near real time lightning strike data:

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu  

Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season proximity to the Inter-Tropical

Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as well as cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season

cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW TO MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season

cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season proximity to the

Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season

cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems, as well as tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season

cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Lightning Induced Noise (QRN) Forecast Scale-

      Very High
     >+1 db Over S9

      High
     S7-9

      Moderate
     S4-6

      Low
     S1-3

         None
     S0

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS- 

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation indices interpretations contained

advance as long as proper credit is given. 

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better. 

2.) A solar flux index under 100, under 70 best.

3.) A solar flux index of at least 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism. 

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best. 

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best. 

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0). 

7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than A1 for several days consecutively. 

8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path Aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. 

10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a Geomagnetic Storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my propagation forecasts. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and distribution of the propagation forecast herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given. 

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.  

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
thomasfgiella at tampabay.rr.com

NZ4O HF/6M Radiowave Propagation Forecast: http://www.solarcycle24.org
NZ4O MF (300-3000 KC) Radiowave Propagation forecast: http://www.mwfrequencypropagation.org
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm
NZ4O HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Email Reflector: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Dashboard: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm 
NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm 
NZ4O 160 Meter (MF) Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm  
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Raw Forecast Data Links: http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm 

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