[NZ4O Spaceweather] This Is Only Another test

Mon Apr 2 14:24:12 PDT 2012

NZ4O MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #2012-14

“A Radiowave Propagation Forecast For Hams As Well As Shortwave DXers And 
Listeners”

Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY

Published on Friday 03/30/2012 at 0000 UTC

Valid 0000 UTC Saturday 03/31/2012 through 2359 UTC Friday 04/06/2012

Medium frequency (300-3000 kc) radiowave propagation conditions are impacted 
in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) 
along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic 
disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal 
absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also 
increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption 
due to elevated background solar flux levels (>A0), proton flux levels at 
energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and galactic cosmic rays. For more 
information on MF radiowave propagation theory check out 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm  .

GLOBAL MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH 
AN EMPHASIS ON 600 METERS, THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 
METERS-

Magnetic Equator-

Low 0-25 degrees

Mid 25-60 degrees

High 60-90 degrees

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

East -> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair

North -> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair To Poor

South -> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE-

East -> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km- Fair

South -> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Poor To Fair

North -> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km- Fair

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans 
Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of 
approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

High Latitude- Poor

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans 
Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of 
approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Mid Latitude- Fair

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans 
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi /5200 km

Low Latitude- Poor To Fair

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans 
Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of 
approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

High Latitude- Poor

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans 
Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of 
approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Mid Latitude- Fair

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans 
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Low Latitude- Poor To Fair

Propagation Forecast Scale-

Excellent- S9+1 or better

Good- S7-S9

Fair- S4-S6

Poor- S1-S3

None- S0

GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. near real time lightning strike data:

http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

A global view of near real time lightning strike data:

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu

Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect HIGH thunderstorm 
lightning induced QRN tied to winter season proximity to the Inter-Tropical 
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as well as cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated 
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH 
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season cold/warm/occluded 
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW TO MODERATE 
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season cold/warm/occluded 
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm 
lightning induced QRN tied to summer season proximity to the Inter-Tropical 
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH 
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season cold/warm/occluded 
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems, as well 
as tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH 
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season cold/warm/occluded 
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Lightning Induced Noise (QRN) Forecast Scale-

Excellent- S9+1 or better

Good- S7-S9

Fair- S4-S6

Poor- S1-S3

None- S0

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL 
MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal 
intellectual property. Therefore the propagation indices interpretations 
contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, all 
rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without 
permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.

2.) A solar flux index under 100, under 70 best.

3.) A solar flux index of at least 100 for routine stable formation of the E 
Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days 
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer 
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than A1 for several days 
consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, 
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path Aurora 
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF 
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery 
time after a Geomagnetic Storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A 
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space 
Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to 
produce my propagation forecasts. This data is gathered and made public by 
the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the propagation forecast 
that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual 
property. Therefore this propagation forecast contained herein is 
copyrighted © 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and 
distribution of the propagation forecast herein is allowed without advanced 
permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts 
are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to 
human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

73 & GUD DX,

Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O

Lakeland, FL, USA

thomasfgiella at tampabay.rr.com

NZ4O HF/6M Radiowave Propagation Forecast: http://www.solarcycle24.org

NZ4O MF (300-3000 KC) Radiowave Propagation forecast: 
http://www.mwfrequencypropagation.org

NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm

NZ4O HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Email Reflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather

NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Dashboard: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm

NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm

NZ4O 160 Meter (MF) Radio Propagation Theory Notes: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm

NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Raw Forecast Data Links: 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm

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