[NZ4O Spaceweather] Discussion Of Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions

[Thomas F Giella NZ4O]

Published on Sunday October 07, 2012 at 1330 UTC. Valid for the next 24 
hours.


1.) DISCUSSION OF SOLAR, SPACE & GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT CAN 
IMPACT MF & HF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION IN A NEGATIVE MANNER-

A long duration B7.8 solar flare occurred at 07:30 UTC on Friday October 5, 
2012. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) is partially geo effective 
(Earth facing) and could strike Earth's magnetic field on Monday October 8, 
2012. Unsettled (Kp-3) to active (Kp-4) geomagnetic conditions are expected, 
with isolated minor (Kp-5) geomagnetic storming possible. If the minor 
(Kp-5) geomagnetic storming occurs the maximum usable frequency (MUF) could 
fall below the 10 meter band for one day.

For the 9th day in the row the daily sunspot number has languished below 100 
at 39. That is the lowest daily sunspot number since August 18th, 2012. 
Solar cycle 24 continues to languish and continues to live down to my 2008 
prediction.

For today there are no significant impediments to good radio wave 
propagation on the HF bands as far as solar, space and geomagnetic weather 
(Kp-3 <). However the daily sunspot number needs to be higher than the 
present 39. The higher the sunspot number (100 & >) (150 & > best) the more 
ultraviolet light available to increase ionization in the F/F2 layer, for 
more consistent east-west radio wave propagation openings on 12 and 10 
meters.

On the medium frequency (MF) band there exists the normal absorption of RF 
signals through the D layer due to incoming cosmic rays and hard x-rays. 
Also the background x-ray flux is running in the B range so there is some 
absorption of RF signals through the D layer.



73 & GUD DX, 
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o at tampabay.rr.com

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