[NZ4O Spaceweather] Discussion Of Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions

[Thomas F Giella NZ4O]

Published on Monday October 08, 2012 at 1430 UTC. Valid for the next 24 
hours.


1.) DISCUSSION OF SOLAR, SPACE & GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT CAN 
IMPACT MF & HF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION IN A NEGATIVE MANNER-

Per my guesscast yesterday, the coronal mass ejection (CME) arrived this 
morning at 0430 UTC. The Kp has been at a 6 for the past 6 hours, which is 
moderate geomagnetic storming. The Boulder, CO K index has been as high as a 
Kp of 7 which is strong geomagnetic storming. The F2 layer maximum useable 
frequency (MUF) has fallen below 12 meters.

The excessive numbers of energetic electrons will spiral down Earth's 
magnetic field lines to the equatorial ring current producing a lower MUF 
also at mid and low latitudes. It will take 36-48 hours for the geomagnetic 
storming to subside and the MUF to climb above 12 and 10 meters.

For the 10th day in the row the daily sunspot number has languished below 
100, currently at 37. The solar flux index (SFI) has fallen to 99.

As I've mentioned in the past on my web page "NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast 
Discussion & Archive" at http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm , I believe 
that the sun has entered a new grand sunspot minimum, that will be similar 
to the Dalton solar minimum, that last occurred in the 1800's. 
http://www.wcflunatall.com/Dalton%20Minimum.jpg .

On the medium frequency (MF) band there exists abnormally high absorption of 
RF signals through the E layer related to the ongoing geomagnetic storm. The 
RF signal absorption will move southward to mid and low latitudes and last 
for up to 72 hours.

Also on the medium frequency (MF) band there exists the normal high 
absorption of RF signals through the D layer due to incoming cosmic rays and 
hard x-rays. Also the background x-ray flux is running in the M range so 
there is even more significant absorption of RF signals through the D layer.



73 & GUD DX, 
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o at tampabay.rr.com

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