[NZ4O Spaceweather] Daily Discussion Of Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions

[Thomas F Giella NZ4O]

Published on Sunday October 14, 2012 at 1330 UTC. Valid for the next 24
hours.


1.) DISCUSSION OF SOLAR, SPACE & GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT CAN
IMPACT MF & HF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION IN A NEGATIVE MANNER-

I participated in the Makrothen RTTY contest over the weekend. I operated on
the 10, 15, 20 and 40 meter bands and radio wave propagation conditions were
poor to very poor.

For the 17th day in the row the daily sunspot number has languished below
100, currently at 85. The 6 day period with rising daily sunspot numbers
came to an end.

The Earth continues to be in a moderate solar wind stream at 1300 UTC (solar
wind speed 530.0 km/sec) from two geo effective (Earth facing) Coronal Holes
(#539 & 540). At approximately 0300 UTC the long lasting minor (Kp-5)
geomagnetic storm ended.

At 1300 UTC the Boulder, CO K index was at a 4, which represents active
geomagnetic conditions. It had been at a 5 which is minor geomagnetic
storming for the past 24 hours. The global K index is also at a 4 which
represents active geomagnetic conditions. It had been a 5 which is minor
geomagnetic storming for the past 18 hours. At times the geomagnetic
storming reduced the maximum useable frequency (MUF) below the 10 meter
band, especially on east-west paths at high and mid latitudes.

There continues significant impediments to good radio wave propagation on
the MF and HF bands as far as solar, space and geomagnetic weather. The Kp
and K indexes are running between a 3 which is unsettled geomagnetic
storming to a 4 which is active geomagnetic conditions. It will take a day
or so before excessive E layer absorption of radio waves of 160, 80, 60, 40,
30 and 20 meters ends. It will take a day or so before the MUF returns above
10 meters and then it will be there only intermittently due to the low daily
sunspot number.

The daily sunspot number needs to be higher than the present 85, as the
higher the sunspot number (150 & >) the more ultraviolet light available to
increase ionization in the F/F2 layer, for more consistent east-west radio
wave propagation openings on 20, 17, 15, 12 and 10 meters.

On the medium frequency (MF) bands there is the normal absorption of RF
signals in the D layer due to incoming cosmic rays and hard x-rays. Also the
background x-ray flux is running in the C range so there is some additional
minor absorption of RF signals in the D layer. And last but not least there
is RF signal absorption via the E layer on high, mid and low latitude
propagation paths due to unsettled (Kp-3) to active (Kp-4) geomagnetic
conditions.



73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o at tampabay.rr.com

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