[W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Daily Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Discussion

Tue Sep 5 21:20:13 EDT 2017

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Published On Wednesday September 6, 2017 At 0100 UTC

Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On Tuesday September 4, 2017-

Solar activity was high.

Earth's geomagnetic field was at a minor geomagnetic storming level.

The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 127.4 120.5 122.6.

On Monday September 4, 2017 the daily SFI numbers were 134.0 182.5 144.8.

The 134.0 number is probably accurate with the other two readings contaminated by large solar flares. This is the highest daily SFI number in a very long time.

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 122.

This is the highest daily SSN in a very long time.

In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 

0.

Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years, 

+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually early.

In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 

0. 

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24 

and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase. 

Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose 

egg.

In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years 

and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be 

virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that 

occurred in the early 1800's. 

Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.

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Officially there were 5 earth facing sun spot groups (SSG).

Sunspot group (SSG) #12673 was located near S09W15 with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a moderate in size M class solar flare and an isolated large X class solar flare. 

Sunspot group (SSG) #12674 was located near N13W00 with a complex beta-gamma magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a moderate in size M class solar flare.

Sunspot group (SSG) #12675 was located near S06W75 with a complex beta magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an isolated moderate in size M class solar flare.

Sunspot group (SSG) #12676 was located near S10W64 with a complex beta magnetic signature.  It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an isolated moderate in size M class solar flare.

Sunspot group (SSG) #12677 was located near N17E53 with a simple alpha magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare.

There was 1 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group (SSG) near N10E59.

There were 8 small in size C class solar flares. The largest was a C9.8.

There were 11 medium in size M class solar flare. The largest was a M5.5.

There was 1 directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME). It was a full halo that should reach earth’s geomagnetic field on approximately Thursday September 7, 2017 and possibly produce moderate (Kp-6) to strong (Kp-7) geomagnetic storming conditions.

There was no partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME). 

There was 1 earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME) related high and mid latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0) that occurred and could continue for several more days. 

No partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME) related high and mid latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0) occurred. 

The high latitude absorption is called polar cap absorption. The mid latitude absorption is caused by energetic protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field lines into the equatorial ring current.

There was 1 earth aimed (geoeffective) solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO) that occurred.

No directly earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic filament eruption occurred.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions of 

4 3 2 2 1 2 3 4.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K index was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions of 

4 4 2 2 2 3 4 4.

The K(p) geomagnetic indices are-

0-2- quiet

3- unsettled

4- active

5- minor geomagnetic storming

6- moderate

7- strong

8- severe

9- extreme

10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between

32 and 5

which was at minor geomagnetic storming to quiet geomagnetic conditions.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-

0-7- quiet

8-15 unsettled

16-29- active

30-49- minor geomagnetic storm

50-99- major

100-400- severe

>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The 24 hour period maximum energetic proton flux was at a background level >10 MeV (10+0), peaking at 210 pfu.

The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux was at M4.21.

The 24 hour period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was at approximately -7 nT.

The larger the negative value the further south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar regions.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged between

-36 and -10 nT. 

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between

564 and 447 km/s.

There was a recurrent medium in size directly earth facing (geoeffective) southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #823 (#819).  

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal 

intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices 

allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to 

see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,

something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation 

of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days 

consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer 

than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days 

consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, 

indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora 

absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF 

signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery 

time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A 

positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer 

critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the 

capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending 

towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

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Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space 

Environment Center, other U.S. government entities, educational institutions and private individuals, to produce my daily solar, space and geomagnetic discussion. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without advanced permission to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it.