[W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Daily Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Discussion

Thu Sep 7 10:46:19 EDT 2017

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Published on Wednesday September 7, 2017 at 1500 UTC

Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions on Wednesday September 6, 2017-

Solar activity was very high.

Earth's geomagnetic field was at an active level.

The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 139.7 132.9 127.3.

These are the highest daily SFI numbers in a very long time.

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 79.

In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.

Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years, 

+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually early.

In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0. 

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24 

and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase. 

Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose egg.

In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years 

and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be 

virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that 

occurred in the early 1800's. 

Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.

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Officially there were 4 earth facing sun spot groups (SSG).

Sunspot group (SSG) #12673 was located near S09W42 with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a moderate in size M class solar flare and a large in size X class solar flare. 

Sunspot group (SSG) #12674 was located near N13W14 with a complex beta-gamma magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a moderate in size M class solar flare and an isolated large in size X class solar flare.

Sunspot group (SSG) #12677 was located near N17E26 with a complex beta magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an isolated medium in size M class solar flare.

Sunspot group (SSG) #12678 was located near N10E33 with a complex beta magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an isolated moderate in size M class solar flare.

There was 2 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot groups (SSG) near 

N15W12,

S09E02.

There were 2 small in size C class solar flares. The largest was a C2.7.

There were 3 medium in size M class solar flares. The largest was a M2.5.

There were 2 large in size X class solar flares. The largest was an X9.3, the largest so far in solar cycle 24.

There was 1 directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME). 

There was 1 partially earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME). 

One was a full halo CME that was ejected on September 4, 2017 and should reach earth’s geomagnetic field on approximately Thursday-Friday September 7-8, 2017 and possibly produce moderate (Kp-6) to strong (Kp-7) geomagnetic storming conditions.

One was a partial halo CME that was ejected on September 6, 2017 and should reach earth’s geomagnetic field on approximately Friday-Saturday September 8-9, 2017 and possibly contribute to ongoing moderate (Kp-6) to strong (Kp-7) geomagnetic storming conditions.

There was 1 directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME) related high latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0) that occurred and may continue for several more days.

The 24 hour period maximum energetic proton flux was at a background level >10 MeV (10+0), peaking at 302 pfu, which was at an S2-S3 level.

The high latitude absorption via Earths D layer is called polar cap absorption. 

The mid latitude absorption is caused by energetic electrons and protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field lines into the equatorial ring current.

There were 2 earth aimed (geoeffective) solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out’s (SFO) that occurred.

No directly earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic filament eruption occurred.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions of 

1 1 1 2 2 2 1 3.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K index was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions of 

1 2 2 3 4 3 1 4.

The K(p) geomagnetic indices are-

0-2- quiet

3- unsettled

4- active

5- minor geomagnetic storming

6- moderate

7- strong

8- severe

9- extreme

10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between

18 and 5

which was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-

0-7- quiet

8-15 unsettled

16-29- active

30-49- minor geomagnetic storm

50-99- major

100-400- severe

>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux was at X9.33.

The 24 hour period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was at approximately -3 nT.

The larger the negative value the further south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar regions.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged between

-34 and -3 nT. 

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between

599 and 444 km/s.

There was a recurrent medium in size directly earth facing (geoeffective) southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #823 (#819).  

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal 

intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices 

allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to 

see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,

something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation 

of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days 

consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer 

than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days 

consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, 

indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora 

absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF 

signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery 

time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A 

positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer 

critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the 

capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending 

towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

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Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities, educational institutions and some private individuals, to produce my daily solar, space and geomagnetic discussion. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this "not for profit" daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it.