[W4HM Spaceweather] W4HM Daily Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Discussion
Thomas F. Giella
thomasfgiella at gmail.com
Fri Sep 15 11:22:10 EDT 2017
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Published on Friday September 15, 2017 at 1530 UTC
Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions on Thursday September 14, 2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at a moderate geomagnetic storming level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 72.6 74.2 73.5.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 11.
On Tuesday September 5, 2017 the daily SSN reached 122, the highest value in a very long time.
In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years, +/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24 and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.
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Officially there was 1 earth facing sun spot group (SSG).
Directly earth aimed (geoeffective) sunspot group (SSG) #12680 was located near N09E14 with a simple magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare.
There was 1 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group (SSG) near
N13E45.
There was no small in size C class solar flare or larger.
There was no directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was no partially earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was 1 directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME) related high latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0). The 24 hour period maximum energetic proton flux was at a background level >10 MeV (10+0), peaking at an S1 level. But barring a new blast of energetic protons the proton storm should come to an end in the next 1-2 days.
The high latitude absorption via earths D layer is called polar cap absorption. The mid latitude absorption is caused by energetic electrons and protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field lines into the equatorial ring current.
There was no earth aimed (geoeffective) solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO).
No earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic filament eruption occurred.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at moderate geomagnetic storming to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
2 2 1 2 3 6 4 4.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K index was at minor geomagnetic storming to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
2 2 2 2 3 5 4 3.
The K(p) geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet 3- unsettled 4- active 5- minor geomagnetic storming 6- moderate 7- strong 8- severe 9- extreme 10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
67 and 4
which was at major geomagnetic storming to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet 8-15- unsettled 16-29- active 30-49- minor geomagnetic storm 50-99- major 100-400- severe >401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux was at A6.52.
The 24 hour period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was at approximately
-18 nT.
The larger the negative value the further south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar regions.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged between
-53 and -23 nT.
And by the way on Friday September 8, 2017 the Dst fell to a whopping -142 nT, the lowest value in a very long time.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
718 and 346 km/s.
It was under the influence of the below mentioned coronal hole (CH).
There was 1 recurrent medium in size earth facing northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #824 (#820).
Its associated high speed solar (HSS) wind stream was attached to earths geomagnetic field and impacting earths ionosphere in a negative manor in the form of moderate (Kp-6) geomagnetic storming conditions.
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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.
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Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities, educational institutions and some private individuals, to produce my daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this "not for profit" daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it.
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