Topband: Question about KH1 to EU QSO possibilities with respect to auroral oval

[Clive GM3POI]

Rick,
 I live at about 59 deg North and also have operated from T2 and T32  of
which T32 must be similar to KH1. At T32 my guess on propagation is that we
could expect in a 4 week on air trip, four EU openings of one sort or
another. 
On that basis the KH1 trip may get one or none, on a short expedition in
terms of 160 on air time. My gut feeling is common darkness or coinciding
SR/SS is needed on these paths.  The Path of course would probably be skewed
over the US  and or over SA if LP. 
73 Clive GM3POI  

-----Original Message-----
From: Topband [mailto:topband-bounces at contesting.com] On Behalf Of Richard
(Rick) Karlquist
Sent: 14 July 2018 16:50
To: topband at contesting.com
Subject: Topband: Question about KH1 to EU QSO possibilities with respect to
auroral oval

There was a lot of discussion about the Baker Is. Dxpedition implying that
the main impediment as to where they could work was mutual darkness.  Here
in W6, we have many hours of mutual darkness with EU, yet we rarely hear EU
on 160 or even 80 meters.
(Except 80 meter long path during our morning).
The auroral oval hypothesis seems to be proven by the fact that we can still
work the Azores and northern Africa, and maybe just barely southern
Portugal, but nothing farther north.
Except for occasional exceptional propagation, during which EU becomes a
chip shot for the night.

Why should anyone expect to have KH1 to EU propagation directly over the
north pole even in the presence of mutual darkness, except as a rare fluke?

73
Rick N6RK
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