A couple of thoughts to add to the thread based on digesting Curt's (K9AKS)
data.
1. Regarding the number of logs received, all three major contests have the
same approximate trend as follows:
a) From 1975 (the start of Curts data) to about 1981, all three major
contests showed about a 10% per year growth rate in logs submitted.
b) From about 1981 to about 1992, all three contests had flat growth.
c) From about 1992 to 1996 or so there was again growth at a rate of about
7% per year (grids?).
d) Since about 1996 we have seen a decline in logs submitted at a rate of
about 5% per year. All numbers are approximations.
2. Regarding the June and September 2m nations highest QSO totals, since
about 1996 the June numbers have been declining while the September numbers
have been flat (September 2002 was a nice peak that I would like to believe,
but as I recall, the east coast had good tropo). My conclusion is that we
have had no growth on 2m.
3. Regarding the June and September 6m nations highest QSO totals, since
about 1996 the June numbers and the September numbers have shown significant
growth, somewhere in the area of 20% per year ! In fact when you graph
Curts data to show trending curves for the number of logs submitted for the
three major contests and the 6m & 2m high QSO counts for the June and
September contests the only two curves that have an upward trend for the
time period from 1996 forward is for the 6m high QSO curves. We've had
good growth on 6m.
Summary: Since about 1996, perhaps nationally we are indeed seeing
somewhat of a decline in the "hard-core" VHFer as evidence by the decrease
in total logs and in the flat or receding 2m high scores. Perhaps this is
being offset by the significant growth in 6m only stations, perhaps due to
the inclusion of 6m on many of the HF rigs, etc. I was hoping to see an
increase in the 2m high scores as well, but the data shows that 2m high
scores are flat or declining (since '96).
Perhaps one factor to include in how to get growth in VHF (contesting) is to
understand why we are having higher 6m scores but fewer log submissions.
Perhaps "we" (ie; VHF clubs, VHFers, the League) need to get a better handle
on these "new" 6m op's and show them the VHF ropes which includes why you
should submit scores (and how to do it).
73, Jon
W0ZQ
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