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[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <>,"a HCDX Prop Channel" <>
Subject: [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 11:17:31 -0500
List-post: <>
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to a C1.1 flare at 1637UTC
from Region 735 (S07W06).  Region 735 has developed a weak delta
configuration just to the south of the main leader spot.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance of an M class flare from Region 735.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Conditions
were initially quiet but attained unsettled to active levels after
0900 UTC. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed in the solar
wind data at about 15/2120 UTC, and was followed by oscillations in
the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz in the range from -8
to +5 nT.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for 17 February. An increase to
unsettled to active is expected for 18 February due to a coronal
hole.  Conditions should return to mostly unsettled on 19 February.

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 113
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  110/105/100
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  001/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  008/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  010/012-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W

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