Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a C1.1 flare at 1637UTC
from Region 735 (S07W06). Region 735 has developed a weak delta
configuration just to the south of the main leader spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance of an M class flare from Region 735.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Conditions
were initially quiet but attained unsettled to active levels after
0900 UTC. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed in the solar
wind data at about 15/2120 UTC, and was followed by oscillations in
the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz in the range from -8
to +5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for 17 February. An increase to
unsettled to active is expected for 18 February due to a coronal
hole. Conditions should return to mostly unsettled on 19 February.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 113
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 110/105/100
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 001/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/012-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
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KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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