[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 25 February as the recurrent high
speed stream becomes geoeffective.  Expect unsettled to active
conditions with minor storm periods possible at higher latitudes on
26 and 27 February.

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 080
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  010/015-012/020-012/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/15
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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HC-DX Propagation Channel: 
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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