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[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>,"a HCDX Prop Channel" <propagation@hard-core-dx.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 10:56:01 -0500
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  Region
735 (S09W85) underwent little noticeable change during the period
and has begun to exit the solar western limb.  Region 736 (N13W77)
appears to have had a growth in sunspot area today as it also begins
to exit the visible disk.  B-class flare activity was observed from
both of these regions today.  No new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels throughout the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 23 February.  A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream should become geoeffective
on 24 February.  Active conditions are possible on 24 and 25
February due to the coronal hole influences.

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 092
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  004/012-008/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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