[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Active periods due to the
effects of a geoeffective high speed stream.  Solar wind speed at
ACE has increased from approximately 450 km/s to 550 km/s.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 26 February.  On 27 and 28
February, expect unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm periods possible.

III.  Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 078
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  010/015-012/020-012/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/15
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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