I'm not sure where the 50 percent came from, but that's a highly unrealistic
What I'm betting on is that they cant make it pay for itself. BPL companies
are still riding high on venture capital and the power companies are along
for the ride since they have little to lose and tons of cash to gain from
leases. A lot of power companies lost their ass investing in telecom
ventures the last time around...I doubt many of them are ready for round two
of the same.
My prediction is that once these companies are required to make it pay for
their investors, they'll fall flat on their asses. Their available
bandwidth is limited, the distance it will work is very limited, and the
major markets are already saturated with cable modems fed by fiber and
hardline with virtually unlimited bandwidth capability.
From: firstname.lastname@example.org [mailto:email@example.com]On
Behalf Of Pete Smith
Sent: Friday, August 15, 2003 3:37 PM
To: WA2BPE; firstname.lastname@example.org
Subject: Re: [RFI] BPL alternatives
At 03:00 PM 8/15/03 -0400, WA2BPE wrote:
>And cell phones - ah, yes - was once again amazed at hearing an ABC (or was
>CBS?) reporter in NYC last nite express ignorance as to why the cell
>down. Even here, where the power outage was spotty (I got lucky -
>it completely for less than 5 min. + 30 min. or so of wild fluctuations),
>systems were down for hours.
Interesting -- on ABC this morning it was stated as given that the cellular
telephone system is sized to support 20 percent of the subscribers in a
given cell actually using the system at a given moment; the report said
that last night downtown NY cells were at closer to 80 percent of
subscribers attempting calls simultaneously.
I just don't see an economic argument for BPL -- the same people who now
can't get DSL, or cable internet, and who don't chose to go satellite, make
up the hardest-to-serve, most-scattered constituency you can imagine. How
the power companies can think that points to a 50 percent market
penetration, ever, is beyond me.
73, Pete N4ZR
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