Bob and Dave,
Solar flares are primarily X-ray events that affect 160 meter propagation
only on the sun facing side of the earth.
Geo-effective Fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are by far the most
damaging solar effects on 160 meter propagation. The majority of fast
CMEs never impact the earth and its ionosphere. Strong geomagnetic
storms are are the best indicators of geo-effective fast CMEs, those
are storms that produce K indices of 5 or more. We've had very
few of them so far in Cycle 25. But buckle your seat belts because
they're coming this year and over at least the next five years
I suspect we're experiencing the absorptive and F2 blanketing
effects of increased E region ionization that often limits 160
meter propagation during periods when the solar flux index exceeds
about 100
73
Frank
W3LPL
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bob Shohet, KQ2M" <kq2m@kq2m.com>
To: "Dave Olean" <k1whs@metrocast.net>
Cc: "topband" <topband@contesting.com>
Sent: Sunday, January 8, 2023 9:04:17 PM
Subject: Re: Topband: Bad 160m Conditions
On 2023-01-08 14:37, David Olean wrote:
> All the flare action normally happens on the downslope of the cycle.
Why do you say that? We had far more flares in 2022 than in 2021 and I
expect more flaring in 2023
than 2022. And it is not just the frequency of the flaring that has
increased, it is also the intensity of
the flaring; 2022 had far more M class flares in 2022 than 2021 and 2022
also had the first X class flare,
after many years of not having even one. And now we just had another X
class flare only 8 days into 2023.
There is almost always more flaring during the upside of the new cycle
than during the bottom
of the previous cycle and the flaring is almost always more intense.
Frequency and intensity of flaring typically follows this order:
1) Downside of the cycle
2) Upside of the new cycle
3) Bottoming phase of the previous cycle
Bob, KQ2M
> Who knows what will happen then!!
>
> Roger, I am still trying to fix my 160 rx antennas
>
>
> 73
>
> Dave K1WHS
>
> On 1/8/2023 2:41 PM, STEVE MCDONALD wrote:
>> >(in fact I don't even recall the Cycle affecting Top Band very
>> much, unlike the higher bands.
>>
>> Roger, I somewhat agree that things do seem a little different this
>> time as even HF is not reflecting what these high flux numbers should
>> be doing. I may be wrong but this present run-up of the cycle seems to
>> have much more flaring (sometimes 20-30 per day) than previous cycles
>> have had and these can really disrupt even HF propagation on the polar
>> path. If we can see several days of a quiet undisturbed field things
>> might improve for a bit.
>>
>> Steve 73
>>
>>
>> WEB - "The VE7SL Radio Notebook": http://qsl.net/ve7sl/
>>
>> VE7SL BLOG - "Homebrewing and Operating Adventures From 2200m to
>> Nanowaves":
>> http://ve7sl.blogspot.ca/
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