:Issued: 2004 Oct 08 1415 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41008
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Oct 2004, 1225UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Oct 2004 until 10 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 012
COMMENT: The S-shaped filament centrally situated on the disk in the southern
hemisphere on 07/10 has partially erupted on 7/10. The eruption started around
17:00 UT, evidence of this can be seen in EIT304 (no images yet available in the
other wavelengths at this time) and SXI movies and also in Halpha images. The
eruption was directed to the SE. At this stage we have no evidence of any
related CME yet. From 17:00 UT onwards (07/10) GOES recorded an enhancement in
X-rays, probably related to this filament eruption. Geomagnetic activity remains
quiet, although from 20:00 UT onwards on 07/10 the solar wind speed started
raising up to a current speed of 360 km/s. The magnetic field also became
stronger, but is directed northward. It is unclear from where this disturbance
could originate, but we do not expect major geomagnetic disturbances from this.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 7 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 039
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 094
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 004
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 003
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data:
http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
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