:Issued: 2004 Oct 09 1348 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41009
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Oct 2004, 1243UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Oct 2004 until 11 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity increased. This morning, peaking at 04:31 UT a C1.2
flare erupted from Catania 35 (NOAA 0680) and also a B8.7 flare at 10:52. The
active region is due to turn of the western limb. The filament which erupted on
07/10 around 17:00 UT was accompanied by a CME directed to the south-west.
Geomagnetic consequences are possible. The CME is first seen around 19:54 UT in
c2. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet at the moment and expected to remain quiet
for the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed is at present 360 km/s and the IMF
has a Bt value around 0 nT, mostly northward pointing. At the centre of the disk
in the southern hemisphere a coronal hole is seen. This could lead to
geomagnetic disturbances form 11 October onwards. Comet ASAS entered the C2 FOV
from the SW (bottom right) on 2004/10/07 Thursday around 10:25 UT, going North.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 8 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 049
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 091
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 008
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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