:Issued: 2004 Oct 01 1306 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41001
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Oct 2004, 1239UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Oct 2004 until 03 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Several small sunspots have emerged over the last two days, but none
of them is expected to produce significant flares (Yesterday, Sept 30, was a
flareless day). On the other hand, based on GOES/SXI imagery, we revised our
conclusion of yesterday. The semi-halo CME detected in LASCO images on Aug.28
(15:30UTC) might well be associated with a front-side filament eruption. A faint
magnetic arcade is seen forming in SXI images, starting at 14:45UTC, West of
central meridian, just before the CME is seen expanding. Given the spares data
now available and the weakness of the source event (B2 X-ray enhancement), we
can only predict the possible arrival of a disturbance at Earth on October 2,
which could temporarily produce active to minor storm conditions. Besides this
elusive transient, quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the rest of the
period.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Sep 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 058
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 088
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 003
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
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