:Issued: 2004 Oct 25 1307 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41025
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Oct 2004, 1243UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 25 Oct 2004 until 27 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 153 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 027
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to remain moderate to high, with C
flares and a probable M flare, mainly from active region 49 (NOAA687) but also
from region 52 (NOAA691), now still near the East limb. Active region 49 (687)
has recently produced successive moderate flares (22/10 07:54, 23/10 16:22,
24/10 20:17 UT) that were all associated with a radio surge and EIT dimming,
suggesting associated Earth-directed CMEs, although only the 22/10 event was
identified as such in LASCO images. Therefore, we expect the current unsettled
to active geomagnetic conditions to extend up to Oct. 27, under the influence of
a low-latitude coronal hole, that started yesterday. Still, on top of that, the
arrival of the successive CMEs may induce minors storms from today until Oct.
28.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 24 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 193
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 135
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 012
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
24 2017 2028 2035 N10E15 M2.3 1N III/1 49 0687
semi-halo CME
23 1622 1654 1708 N11E33 C9.9 SF 56 III/1 49 0687 EIT
dimming, semi-halo CME?
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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