:Issued: 2004 Oct 24 1237 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41024
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Oct 2004, 1155UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 24 Oct 2004 until 26 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 017
COMMENT: The sunspot number continues to increase (today Catania reports a Wolf
number of nearly 200). Catania sunspot group 49 (NOAA 0687) produced a C9.9
flare yesterday at 1654UT, which was the biggest event in the past 24 hours. A
bit later a C8.0 flare originated from the same group. This region remains the
most active and continues to grow. We estimate it has a very high chance for
M-flares and even a small chance for an X-flare. Also Catania sunspot groups 43
(NOAA 0684, just right of disk centre) and 52 (NOAA 0691, near east limb) are
growing and may generate C-class flares. Catania sunspot group 39 (NOAA 0688) is
now at the west limb and will disappear from view.
Geomagnetic conditions have remained quiet during the past 24 hours. Early
today, the solar wind speed showed a rapid but small increase to 450km/s, and it
is rising again now, which may mark the start of the influence of a northern
hemisphere coronal hole. We expect active geomagnetic conditions.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 23 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 175
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 132
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 009
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 005
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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