:Issued: 2004 Oct 19 1215 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41019
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Oct 2004, 1207UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Oct 2004 until 21 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 006
COMMENT: We are at the moment feeling the influence of the northern coronal
hole which is not clearly visible anymore in EIT 284. Yesterday evening,
September 18, ACE started to show a clear signature of this hole in several
physical quantities like speed, interplanetary magnetic field, temperature,
density and the angle phi giving information on sector changing. This quantity,
phi, gives clear, instantaneous information when ACE (and earth), comes in the
influence sphere of a hole. Last rotation, we experienced a period of
geomagnetic disturbances lasting mainly one day (October 22) with a maximum
K-index measured by Niemegh of 5 and the same maximum K_p index estimated by
NOAA. The strength of the coronal hole is clearly diminished, as NOAA estimated
tonight and now quiet conditions and Izmiran measured a maximum K-index of 4.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 107
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 096
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 006
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA
NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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