:Issued: 2004 Oct 26 1246 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41026
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Oct 2004, 1225UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 Oct 2004 until 28 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 151 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 023
COMMENT: The Sun remains eruptive but its activity is expected to decline
slightly, as active region 49 (NOAA687) has declined since yesterday, while
region 52 (NOAA 691) remains stable and has only produced an isolated C flare
despite its complex beat-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Both regions will
produce C flares, with still a moderate chance of an M flare. The influence of
the N-W coronal hole is decaying sooner than expected, with a solar wind speed
now at 450km/s and positive Bz. Since yesterday, the geomagntic field thus
returned to largely quiet conditions. However, renewed activity can be expected
on the 27 and 28 october, with active conditions induced by the arrival of CMEs
from the Oct. 23 and 24 flares. For the latter event, H-alpha images show that a
double filament eruption took place near (East of) active regions 49 and 53
(NOAA 692).
SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 124
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 140
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 021
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 015
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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