:Issued: 2004 Oct 29 1255 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41029
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Oct 2004, 1239UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Oct 2004 until 31 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 017
COMMENT: The solar activity has been very low. However, C flares are still
expected, mainly from the new medium-sized sunspot group 57 (NOAA693) in a
beta-gamma configuration, with also a possible isolated M flare.
After a minimum of 290km/s on Oct. 29 03:00UT, the solar wind is picking up
speed, while the Bz component of the IMF turned southward. Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions are expected to follow for the next two days, with occasional active
conditions, due to a coronal hole influence on Oct. 30 and 31, and the possible
arrival on Oct. 31 of a disturbance associated with the Oct. 27 semi-halo CME
SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 142
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 133
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 005
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 003
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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