:Issued: 2004 Oct 28 1304 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41028
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Oct 2004, 1232UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Oct 2004 until 30 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 016
COMMENT: On the Sun, active regions 49 (NOAA687) and 52 (NOAA691) have decayed
further, but a new active region (57, NOAA693) that appeared at the SE limb
yesterday already contributed several C flares. More C flares are expected from
those 3 regions.
Yesterday, the LASCO coronagraph detected a halo CME at 10:30. Although its
source remains uncertain, it may be a frontside event. Given its slow estimated
speed of 300km/s, it wouldn't reach the Earth before October 31 and it should
then only produce a moderate geomagnetic disturbance (active).
In the meantime, a minor solar wind disturbance associated with the Oct.23 C9.9
flare was recorded yesterday by ACE. It has now decayed without causing more
than local unsettled conditions. Another disturbance associated with the M2
flare of Oct. 24 in the same region may still follow later today, Oct. 28, with
also a limited impact (Kp=3 or 4). Thereafter, a small low-latitude coronal hole
is expected to raise the geomagnetic activity (Kp= 3 to 4) for 2 days, starting
on Oct. 30.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 163
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 130
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 004
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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