:Issued: 2004 Oct 22 1249 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41022
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Oct 2004, 1245UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Oct 2004 until 24 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 024
COMMENT: Yesterday evening, October 21, a C9.9 flare occurred, coming from
sunspot group 49 (NOAA 0687) on the eastside of the solar disk. An EIT wave was
seen. A corresponding CME was also ejected. No influence from it is expected.
Today, this same sunspot group produced an M2.1 flare (peak at 08:11UT). The
flare had only a short duration. Solar wind speed is decreasing slowly together
with the total interplanetary magnetic field. A new northern coronal hole is
visible in EIT images. We expect it to be geoeffective from October 23-24
onwards.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 142
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 112
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 016
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 010
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
22 :: 0811 :: M2.1 49 0687
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://w2ev.rochesterny.org/PropNET
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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