[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 05 1255 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50105
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Jan 2005, 1220UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Jan 2005 until 07 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 033
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 011

COMMENT: Catania sunspot group continues to decay and has only produced a 
B8.4
flare in the past 24 hours. C-class flares remain likely from this group, 
which
is the only one currently visible.

EIT images clearly show the onset of two CMEs from Catania group 98 related 
to
the two large C-flares of Dec 04. Both led to very faint full halo CMEs. The
first one of these corresponded to the alert that was broadcast by the 
CACTus
package, while an alert for the second event has not (yet) been generated. A
prominence eruption in the north-east quadrant also led to a strong CME. 
Also
the B-flare earlier today was accompanied by a CME.

At the moment the solar wind speed is still high (700 km/s), leading to 
minor
storm conditions. Since we expect the arrival of several CME shock fronts in 
the
coming days, minor storm conditions are likely to continue and may worsen to
major storm.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 017
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 088
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 024

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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