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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no solar flares were observed this period. Region 2476 (S10E41, Cao/beta) exhibited minor growth throughout the period while the remaining active regions were stable.

An eruptive prominence on the limb was observed near S38W90 in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between 03/0930-1030 UTC. The eruption propagated along the filament channel from southeast to northwest and while relevant coronagraph imagery was unavailable at the time of this writing, this event is not expected to be Earth-directed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (03-05 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,110 pfu observed at 02/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to recover from the proton event observed on 02 Jan and returned to near-background levels by the end of the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through mid-to-late on day one (03 Jan) when the anticipated arrival of the 01 Jan coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected to cause a decrease to normal flux levels. A return to moderate to high 2 MeV flux levels is expected on days two and three (04-05 Jan) as CME effects subside.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (03-05 Jan) with a slight chance for an enhancement midday on day one (03 Jan) due to the anticipated arrival of the 01 Jan CME.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speeds were relatively steady between 425-500 km/s. Total field strength values varied between 6-9 nT and Bz was mostly northward throughout the period. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced mid-to-late on day one (03 Jan) with the anticipated arrival of the 01 Jan CME. Solar wind measurements are expected to begin a return to near-background levels early on day two (04 Jan) as CME effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet this period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels mid-to-late on day one (03 Jan) due to the anticipated arrival of the 01 Jan CME. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day two (04 Jan) as CME effects subside. A quiet to unsettled field is expected on day three (05 Jan) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

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