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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no reportable events were observed over the period. Region 2483 (N17E24, Cso/beta) exhibited slight growth in the period while the remaining five active regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (10-12 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,900 pfu observed at 09/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on days one and two (10-11 Jan). The onset of an enhanced solar wind environment on day three (12 Jan) is expected to cause a decrease to normal to moderate flux levels.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (10-12 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds were relatively steady between 420-460 km/s, IMF total field strength values were steady near 4-8 nT, and Bz was between +6 nT and -5 nT. The phi angle remained primarily in a positive (away) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at background levels through midday on day three (10-12 Jan). On day three (12 Jan), the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is likely to cause a solar wind enhancement. Wind speeds around 550-600 km/s are anticipated as the coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet levels through midday on day three (10-12 Jan). On day three (12 Jan), the anticipated onset of a CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause active conditions with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely.

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