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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2476 (S08W07, Cro/beta) continued its gradual decay. Region 2477 (N12E15, Hsx/alpha) remained stable over the past 24 hours. An impulsive C1 flare was observed from a region rotating around the NE limb at 06/1137 UTC. A filament centered around the the SE limb began erupting around 06/1100 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (06-08 Jan).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, at the GOES-13 satellite, reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,153 pfu observed at 05/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on days one through three (06-08 Jan) as the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) continues to elevate solar wind speeds, increasing relativistic electron flux in geostationary orbit. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over the next three days (06-08 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggest transition into the high speed stream proper from the co-rotating interaction region (CIR). Total magnetic field strength (Bt) at the beginning of the period was elevated at around 10 nT and continued to rise with a peak flux of 17 nT observed. After 06/0000 UTC, flux gradually declined to around 5-6 nT as density dropped and solar wind speeds increased. Peak speeds, thus far, have been between 600-650 km/s. The phi angle was variable early in the period and rotated into a predominantly positive (away from the Sun) sector after 05/1630 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced, with a gradual decline anticipated over the next three days (06-08 Jan). Total magnetic field strength (Bt) will likely remain around 5 nT and density around 1 p/cc as the CH HSS persists.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached minor storm (G1-Minor) levels as the Bz component of the solar wind turned southward during the transition between the CIR and the CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is forecast to be and mostly unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming (G1-Minor) expected on day one (06 Jan). Day two and three (07-08 Jan) are likely to observe mostly unsettled conditions with isolated periods of active expected as the CH HSS persists.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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