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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with no notable flare activity. Region 2481 (S18W75, Dao/beta) exhibited minor growth this period while Region 2480 (N03E49, Dao/beta) was relatively stable. Region 2478 (N07W34, Bxo/beta) reemerged with spots early in the period but began to decay shortly thereafter. New Regions 2482 (N03W16, Bxo/beta) and 2483 (N16E38, Bxo/beta) were numbered this period but were unproductive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (09-11 Jan). There is a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) on days one and two (09-10 Jan) due to the flare potential of Regions 2480 and 2481.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,720 pfu observed at 08/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (09-11 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 500 km/s to end-of-period values near 450 km/s. IMF total field strength values were steady at around 5 nT. Bz was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels over the next three days (09-11 Jan) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled over the next three days (09-11 Jan) under a background solar wind environment.

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