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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels, with a C2 flare observed at 15/0239 UTC from Region 2480 (N03W45, Hax/alpha). A type II radio sweep (550 km/s) was associated with this event from 15/0241-0243 UTC. Further analysis will be conducted to determine if a coronal mass ejection is associated with the event as imagery becomes available. Both Region 2483 (N18W35, Cao/beta) and Region 2480 exhibited slight overall decay and were mostly inactive during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (15-17 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak observed flux of 2,840 pfu at approximately 14/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one through three (15-17 Jan) as elevated solar wind speeds persist from the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (15-17 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected weakening CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) averaged around 5 nT throughout the period. The Bz component of the magnetic field was variable, observing a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Solar wind speeds showed an overall decrease throughout the period, from roughly 500 km/s to near 450 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually decrease to ambient levels over the next three days (15-17 Jan) as CH HSS influence subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to residual CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next three days (15-17 Jan) as CH HSS influence subsides.

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