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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2476 (S09E12, Dao/beta) was the most complex spot group on the solar disk. The region underwent gradual dissipation around the leader and trailer spots over the past 24 hours. Region 2477 (N34E27, Hsx/alpha) was the only other spotted region. It remained relatively inactive.

A disappearing solar filament (DSF) was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off from the southeast quadrant at approximately 04/1230 UTC. The material appeared to be reabsorbed and there is no anticipated geoeffective component associated with this event. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in available satellite imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (05-07 Jan).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 7,407 pfu observed at 04/1845 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (05 Jan). A decrease to normal to moderate flux values is likely on days two and three (06-07 Jan) due to an anticipated enhanced solar wind environment associated with a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over the next three days (05-07 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected mostly nominal conditions for the majority of the day with a minor enhancement towards the end of the period. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was around 5-8 nT for most of the period. After 05/0800 UTC there was a gradual increase to a peak of 11 nT. The Bz component of the magnetic field was predominantly northward. Wind speeds underwent a decline with winds beginning the period around 450 km/s and trending downward to around 370 km/s before increasing to above 420 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was oriented in the positive sector (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels on day one (05 Jan) under a mostly nominal solar wind regime. A solar wind enhancement is expected on day two (06 Jan) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds in excess of 650 km/s were observed from this HSS last rotation. On day three (07 Jan), CH HSS effects are expected to persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels with isolated periods of unsettled conditions on day one (05 Jan) due to a nominal solar wind environment. The anticipated onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS on day two (06 Jan) is expected to cause quiet to active levels with periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. Day three (07 Jan) is likely to see unsettled to active conditions as CH HSS effects persist.

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