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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Both Region 2483 (N18W29, Dao/beta) and Region 2480 (N04W33, Hax/alpha) exhibited slight overall decay and were mostly inactive during the period, producing only low level B-class activity. A new area of emerging plage was observed rotating onto the northeastern limb near N13 during the period. This area will be monitored and numbered, if warranted, as more imagery becomes available. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (14-16 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak observed flux of 3,055 pfu at approximately 13/2100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one through three (14-16 Jan) as elevated solar wind speeds persist from the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (14-16 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected continued CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) averaged around 5 nT throughout the period. The Bz component of the magnetic field was variable, observing a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Solar wind speeds fluctuated throughout the period, ranging between roughly 450-600 km/s, but experienced an overall decrease. Phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually subside on day one (14 Jan) as the CH HSS influence continues to wane. Days two and three (15-16 Jan) are expected to observe near background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jan) under the influence of the waning CH HSS. As the CH HSS subsides, days two and three (15-16 Jan) are likely to see a return to mostly quiet conditions.

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